Making winning NFL picks is no easy task, even for the most seasoned pro football bettors. With 32 teams playing 16 games each, for a total of 256 regular season games, there are a dizzying number of potential wagers to consider each week. However, by following some key strategies, you can improve your chances of consistently picking winners against the point spread.
Here are some tips for making winning NFL picks:
Do Your Research
The first key is to put in the time studying teams, players, matchups, and trends. You want to gather as much relevant information as possible before making any pick. Some important factors to research:
- Team records – how have they been performing lately? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
- Injuries – who is banged up or out? How will key injuries impact a team’s gameplay?
- Motivational factors – are they coming off a big win or tough loss? Fighting for playoff position? Rivalry game?
- Statistics – how efficient are the offenses and defenses? Any matchups that favor one side?
- Trends – how have they performed against the spread? Do they play better at home or on the road? Divisional games?
The more data you have, the better informed your picks will be. Spend time studying everything available to find an edge.
Focus on the Lines
Don’t just pick which team you think will win. The key to winning NFL picks is beating the sportsbook’s lines and odds. Consider factors like:
- Home field advantage – which is typically worth 3 points
- Public perception – is the public heavy on one side? Fade them if so.
- Line moves – where did the line open and where is it now? What caused it to move?
- Trust your own handicapping over the sportsbooks’ oddsmakers
Avoid being swayed by the hype and attention around big market teams like the Cowboys and Patriots. Focus on the factors that offer value.
Bet Selectively
One of the biggest mistakes recreational bettors make is wagering on too many games. Even the most knowledgeable handicappers win only around 55-60% of NFL picks over a season. You have to be highly selective and disciplined in choosing your spots.
Stick to picks and matchups you feel the most confident in. Better to only bet 3-5 games and win at a higher percentage than bet 10 and lose more than you win. Have the discipline to wait for the right opportunities and resist the urge to over-bet.
Manage Your Bankroll
Proper bankroll management is crucial for sports betting success. Experts recommend wagering no more than 1-3% of your bankroll on each pick. For a $1,000 bankroll, that means betting $10 to $30 per game.
Set a budget for your bankroll and stick to it. When you lose, don’t chase losses by upping bet sizes. Have a strategy for both winning and losing streaks. A conservative approach is essential to long-term profits.
Use Betting Systems
Certain betting systems can help you maximize profits and minimize losses. Two popular systems for sports betting include:
- Units – Fixed percentages of your bankroll set aside for each pick. E.g. 1-5% of bankroll per pick.
- Kelly Criterion – Calculates bet size based on your edge over the sportsbook’s lines and the odds on offer. The higher your edge, the larger bet indicated.
These systems control risks and optimize returns. You can increase your chances of building your bankroll steadily over time.
Do Your Own Handicapping
While expert picks can provide useful guidance and different perspectives, the most successful sports bettors do their own handicapping and make picks based on their own analysis. You will develop a feel for what works and learn from your wins and losses over time.
Listen to the experts and absorb as much information as possible, but trust your gut when making picks. Go with what your own handicapping says and you will do much better in the long run.
Making consistent winning NFL picks is challenging but possible. By researching thoroughly, understanding line value, sports betting selectively, managing your bankroll, and trusting your own handicapping, you can improve your pick percentages and profits each season. It requires dedication and discipline, but the hard work pays off over time.